No manufactured win rate. Every result starts with a timestamped decision.
SociArb will publish alert outcomes only after the source evidence, market quote, company mapping, event checks, and decision rules can be audited.
No live or backtested performance claim is currently published.
Walk-forward paper alerts before performance marketing.
Version the scoring model, gates, source queries, and event-risk windows.
Let the production collector make decisions without knowing future outcomes.
Preserve the evidence, decision quote, blockers, and lifecycle at that moment.
Track fixed windows, favorable movement, drawdown, invalidation, and closure.
Show the complete cohort, including cases that failed or never qualified.
What must be true before a return appears here.
- Freeze the scoring rules and thresholds before each walk-forward period.
- Use only sources captured before the decision timestamp.
- Measure from the alert time, not the earlier candidate-detection time.
- Publish invalidations, misses, and drawdowns alongside positive outcomes.
- Separate live, paper, simulation, and retrospective cohorts at all times.
Observed stock-price movement is not the same as subscriber profit. Returns will be presented as gross market movement over defined windows, with methodology and limitations, not as an assumed trade result.
Explore the research format without mistaking it for an alert record.
The current Celsius, e.l.f. Beauty, and On Running pages are retrospective illustrations. They help explain the product-to-company research workflow and are excluded from every performance total.